Tuesday, May 03, 2005

Liberalism; Rinkagate; Is Voting Rational? (Rambling Post Ahead)

I doubt that anyone in Britain is particularly suprised at the level of sectarianism evident in the Northern Ireland election campaign. Northern Ireland is a weird and primitive place: Parties are strictly built around ethnic loyalty, race-baiting rhetoric is not uncommon, the gorillas of violence and repression even pop into the room now and again. What probably is surprising though, especially to people in Northern Ireland, is that the British election is being fought in precisely the same way. Remember back in the good old days when Enoch Powell was demoted within Conservative ranks for giving his notorious Rivers of Blood Speech? Today, would it not be more likely for a Tory to be dropped from the shadow cabinet for not giving such a speech? The single-minded obsession with immigration, the naked appeal to racism (I know, I know, it's not racist to oppose immigration... but still): Even putting aside the cultural and economic suicide Britain would be committing by dropping to Howardite immigration levels (while its competitor nations don't), there's the strategic aspect. As Mark Steyn wondered, do they really think this stuff will get them more votes? I don't often lapse into new-world jingoism, but in North America it might be hard to imagine even Pat Buchanan so explicitly playing the nativist card during an election campaign. Isn't this stuff more likely to convince the saner Tories to either stay home or vote Repub... I mean Labour?

Speaking of which, Tony Blair is also running a Northern Irish campaign. Or rather, is running to turn the entire UK into Belfast circa a couple decades ago: A national security state with mandatory ID cards, soldiers with tanks "protecting" public buildings, checkpoints and searches, etc. Ideologically, it's quite revealing how quick and easy it is for social democrats to turn into raving neo-con maniacs. Perhaps it's because deep down, neither group has much time for weepy abstractions like the individual human being. Which makes one think: In Canada, the NDP has usually tended in opposition to be less bad on civil liberties than the Liberals have been in government. If the NDP were to form a government, though, how long would it be before Deputy Prime Minister Chow would be making statements like this?

Which leads me to my endorsement, which my loyal readers (Hi Mom) will no doubt not spit out their coffee in shock when they read. For me, elections are all about choosing the least bad option, and in this election, there's fortunately a major party which is more fully and unambiguously less bad than its ideological cousins across the pond ever dare to be. Perhaps that's only because it doesn't have to worry about forming a government, but still, could you imagine Paul Martin or John Kerry running on an explicitly pacifist and civil libertarian platform? I couldn't. The LibDem campaign has been an absolute joy to behold. In North America we tend to leave campaigns against things like identity cards to non-electoral groups like the ACLU, since no politician will touch them. And, with both Labour and the Tories seeming to admit that they would have gone to war in Iraq even if they had known that Saddam had no WMD's (why, then? just for a jolly good lark?), the Iraq issue was wide open for the LibDems, and they've seized it.

And Iraq has even gotten Jeremy Thorpe to come out of retirement and into the campaign. I have a huge amount of respect for the Thorpe, whose flamboyant yet very classy leadership of the Liberal Party in the sixties and seventies helped rebuild it into the serious third force it is today. His political career was ruined by Rinkagate, a scandal so mind-bogglingly complex (and lurid) that it somehow just had to happen in the staid, square Britain of the seventies (Rinka was a Great Dane, shot and killed by an assassin on a lonely West Country moor). I've been leafing through his memoirs recently, which show Thorpe not only to be a delightful and fascinating man, but also to have a great commitment to, and even more importantly understanding of, what liberalism really is. Not to be horrid, but some memoirists could perhaps stand to be reminded that liberalism means more than just "whatever I and the people loyal to me happen to believe at any given time." OK, that was horrid, but I guess my point is that Canadian politics could well have used more people of Thorpe's quality and stature.

Finally, one last point about the campaign: Strategic voting (the bugbear of third parties everywhere). I personally can never understand why anyone would ever vote "strategically." I can certainly understand advocating strategic voting: If you're in a two-way race, every hour spent knocking doors, every letter to the editor, every radio appearance can have a profound effect on the outcome if you're able to convince enough third-party voters to temporarily switch their allegiance to you, then tell all their friends about it, etc. But at the individual level it's not rational, and therefore not actually "strategic." A single vote has no more chance of changing the actual outcome of a competitive riding than it does of a non-competitive riding. Seats can certainly be won by a dozen votes, but I don't think they can realistically be won by a single vote. Every recount in such a scenario would produce different winners, making the result meaningless. (Help me out, blogosphere: Has there ever been a British or federal Canadian riding with a certified one-vote victory margin?) If you accept that proposition, then it stands to reason that it doesn't matter how you personally decide to vote, because it cannot affect the ultimate result, no matter how close your riding is. You might want to advocate strategic voting to all your friends, you might want to publish pamphlets urging mass nose-holding at the polls, but your actual behavior in the voting booth has no effect on anything, so you may as well vote for whoever you want.

Obviously, the same can be said for voting at all. The most rational electoral behavior for an individual is not to vote (if for no other reason than that the chance of one vote materially affecting the result is far, far smaller than the chance of being hit by a car on the way to the polling booth). But elections are the pageants of democratic states. Taking part in them makes people feel that the government is listening to them, and therefore allows them to feel that they have some kind of stake in it. The question of whether individuals should feel that governments are in some way an extension of "their" will rather than immoral cabals of thieves and murderers is another question, which will have to wait for one of my more characteristically cynical posts.

Anyway, to wind up this novella, I would say to any Brits out there: Vote early, vote often, vote LibDem, or don't vote at all. I don't care how you individually decide to vote since that can't make a difference, but I very much care how you collectively decide to vote. Paint the town yellow. Peace.
This is tremendously interesting, but as I set out in my own blog, I have some problems with it. In addition to those, I would say that unless we are suicidal it won't do to stand on a pacifist platform whilst faced with an enemy that is manifestly not pacifist, that is moved by religious motives to destroy us even at the expense (which to it is not an expense) of destroying itself. What is the pacifist response to the threat of Islamofascist terror? How would the Lib Dems respond to a 9.11 without curtailing civil liberties at all? This is the central issue of our time whether we like it or not. No one wants our response to cramp our liberal and libertine lifestyle, but what if that is a condition of survival? In attempting to address that question, you never seem to be able to tear yourself away from abstractions about individual rights. Or so it appears to me.

Sorry to rant...your piece is truly excellent and informative. I hadn't thought of Jeremy Thorpe in years.
War is the health of the state. Governments have been amazingly adept at convincing people that a war is the government protecting the people from a threat, when actually it's the people protecting the government from a threat

If you want to give up your civil liberties and possibly your life to defend the state, that's your decision. If you want to give up anyone else's life and liberty, though, that shouldn't be your decision. And it shouldn't be the state's decision either.

I agree with you on one thing: War and civil liberties are the central issue of our time.
I'm willing to give up some liberty, not to defend the state, as such, but rather to defend the existence, and even the very possibility, of liberty itself. And the significance of the state as a source and guarantor of our liberties seems completely lost on you.

I don't see how we can find and stop the terrorists by curtailing individual liberties on a purely voluntary basis. That is because the terrorists are unlikely to volunteer. We curtail liberties (and, in the current situation, in a very small way, I might add) in order to help us find the bad guys. To do that, *everyone's* liberties must be curtailed (unless you want to engage in "profiling", which I'm happy to do, by and large, but you're probably not).

I could understand if you simply didn't think that something like the USA PATRIOT Act would actually help in stopping terrorism, but the impression I have is that even if this type of legislation *were* proven effective you would persist in objecting to it on the ground that it curtailed the civil liberties of terrorists.
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